Market Outlook #250 (18th December 2023)
Hey, and welcome to the 250th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s submit, I will probably be protecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Casper Community, TriasLab, Morpheus Community and Cellframe. I may also be offering a year-end replace to Altcoin Market Cap.
That is the final Outlook for 2023. Have an awesome Christmas and a Comfortable New Yr and I’ll see you in 2024.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $40,971
Ideas: If we start by BTC/USD, from the weekly timeframe we will see that worth spent final week contained in the vary of the earlier week, printing an inside week. Given this formation, the very first thing to think about is the potential for inside week failure, which might kind if we take out both final week’s low or its excessive after which shut again inside that weekly vary. Provided that we bought off from final week’s open into the shut again beneath $42k, and thus our proximity to the weekly vary low (and the broader market outlook), I lean in the direction of the probability of us taking out the weekly low at $40.3k earlier than closing again above it. In that situation, we might count on final week’s excessive to get taken out out and worth to seemingly proceed to squeeze past $45k, with $48.2k as main resistance past that. If, nevertheless, worth closes the week beneath $40.3k, this situation is invalidated and I might count on a deeper pullback from there in the direction of $38k as untested prior resistance.
Dropping into the each day, we will see that each day construction is now bearish, given the break and shut beneath the $43k swing-low and subsequent lower-high; nevertheless, that wasn’t a lot of a swing level, so while that is technically bearish construction I’m not notably satisfied by it as of but. If we had been to now shut the each day via $40k, that seems to be rather more convincing for short-term bearishness, with first targets of a trendline retest and the $38k prior resistance, with $33k as the foremost degree beneath that if we’re to take out all of these untapped lows alongside the trendline earlier than bottoming out. Nonetheless, if we will proceed to carry right here above $40k (or deviate this low and shut again above it), I might search for a push again above $43k earlier than favouring additional upside; between these ranges I don’t have a lot of a bias. Shut again above $43k and I do assume we proceed to push increased into $48k…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $2132 (0.05203 BTC)
Ideas: If we start by ETH/USD on the weekly timeframe, we will see that worth retraced all the positive factors of the prior weekly enlargement final week, promoting off from the open again into reclaimed assist at $2172. Worth depraved beneath the prior weekly low into $2137, which held as assist, with the pair closing again above $2172. Actually, that is very a lot giving blended alerts: we’ve erasure of the earlier week’s positive factors following enlargement past yearly highs, however we’ve a sweep of the weekly low into main assist too. Mainly, chop continues. What I’m right here is the place we will proceed to carry above $2172 this week; shut above it after sweeping final week’s low and I feel we’ve the makings of a backside earlier than one other run at $2425. If, nevertheless, we shut the week beneath $2137, I feel we’re prone to see $1850 taken out earlier than a backside is discovered. Wanting on the each day, we will see how each day construction seems to be set to show bearish right here if we do break and shut beneath $2137, and if that’s confirmed we will count on $2036 to be examined later this week, however with rather more assist down round $1850. Nonetheless, as talked about earlier, sweep this space of prior resistance after which climb again above $2172 later this week and I feel shorts get trapped and we squeeze again in the direction of yearly highs.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we will see that worth continues to cut round between assist at 0.051 and resistance round 0.055. There may be little else to be added right here given the narrative has been the identical inside this vary for weeks now. After we break and shut both aspect of the vary, I wouldn’t be fast to fade it.
Casper Community:
CSPR/USD
Each day:
CSPR/BTC
Each day:
Worth: $0.038 (92 satoshis)
Ideas: Provided that each pairs look just about similar right here for CSPR, let’s deal with the Greenback pair.
Taking a look at CSPR/USD, we will see that it has been range-bound for 585 days at this level, with a lot of that being spent above $0.025 and beneath $0.055, apart from a short fakeout past that vary resistance earlier this 12 months. We now have bullish construction right here on the each day however have bought off from prior assist up close to the prime quality, with worth now set to retest the 200dMA at $0.037 as assist. So long as we now maintain above reclaimed assist at $0.035 and the 200dMA, forming a higher-low, I might count on to see one other push on the vary resistance from right here up close to $0.055. If this can be a undertaking you have an interest in (reader request, FYI), I might contemplate this pretty much as good an entry as any on condition that your invalidation right here may very well be as tight at $0.031; closing beneath that may invalidate all of this current construction and we’d seemingly return in the direction of the underside of the vary from there. Wanting forward, the disbelief part is apparent – shut above $0.073 and I feel this begins its bull cycle, with $0.22 as main resistance past that.
TriasLab:
TRIAS/USD
Each day:
TRIAS/BTC
Each day:
Worth: $5.57 (13,579 satoshis)
Ideas: Once more, given how comparable these pairs look right here, let’s deal with the Greenback pair, because the construction can also be just a little cleaner.
Taking a look at TRIAS/USD, we will see that worth was in a protracted interval of enlargement off the underside earlier than spending a lot of 2023 in consolidation beneath $4.15, faking out above that degree as soon as. This lengthy consolidation vary led to cost winding tighter with the 360dMA appearing as assist and worth then reclaiming the 200dMA as assist in October. Since, the pair has rallied in the direction of $4.15, consolidated between the 200dMA and that degree and most lately damaged out sharply past that resistance, breaking recent yearly highs via $5. Given this market construction, I might completely not be fading this, as a substitute contemplating this seemingly the start of the following main leg increased for TRIAS. If we will now maintain above $4.15, I might count on $6.40 to provide means and worth to make its means in the direction of trendline resistance and reclaimed resistance up close to $12 earlier than the following native prime kinds.
Morpheus Community:
MNW/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
MNW/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $1.08 (2659 satoshis)
Ideas: If we start by MNW/USD on the weekly, we will see that worth continues to be capped by trendline resistance from the all-time highs, having now rejected beneath the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market at prior assist ~$1.46. We’re at the moment discovering assist above $0.94, as has been the case since late final 12 months, however to be sincere this isn’t a very enticing long-term chart at current. We now have worth discovering assist above the 200wMA in Nov final 12 months, then rallying to recent yearly highs into $2.45, confirming a weekly uptrend, however then rejecting, erasing the positive factors again into the 200wMA after which rallying rather more weakly off that very same assist into the trendline. If that $0.94 assist goes, this pair returns to bearish construction on the weekly, in order that’s at the moment your most necessary degree. Till it will get a weekly shut via that trendline and again above $1.50, I wouldn’t have an interest on this to be sincere – a lot better alternatives available in the market.
Taking a look at MNW/BTC, we will see that the pair could be very a lot nonetheless in a bear cycle at current, with recent lows on the latest break and shut beneath 3264 satoshis. Worth is now sat in no man’s land, with main assist beneath close to 1400 satoshis, and resistance overhead at that 3264 degree. There may be additionally no signal simply but of development exhaustion on the weekly timeframe. I really feel like given how lately this rallied into all-time highs (Nov 2022), will probably be some time but earlier than this one totally bottoms out; while most of its worth capitulation seems to have occurred, we might must see a interval of flat consolidation earlier than one other cycle can start for MNW.
Cellframe:
CELL/USD
Each day:
CELL/BTC
Each day:
Worth: $0.19 (475 satoshis)
Ideas: Once more, very similar to a few different tokens on this submit, CELL’s pairs look very comparable right here and I’m specializing in the Greenback pair, as that can also be what I’m basing my long-term place on.
So, CELL/USD, we will see that worth has retraced following the push above $0.24 into $0.29, returning to reclaimed assist above $0.185 and the 200dMA. We stay capped by the long-term trendline resistance, however following the multi-year downtrend we’ve been consolidating above all-time lows and beneath $0.37 since mid-2022. I’m very a lot nonetheless in my spot place right here and if I used to be not totally allotted I might be shopping for some inside this vary. Invalidation could be recent all-time lows, the place I might lower and look forward to a reclaim or a brand new vary formation. However given the broader market situations I feel we usually tend to proceed chopping round right here after which begin reversing sharply when ETH begins outperforming. Above $0.37 the primary bull cycle begins…
Altcoin Market Cap:
ALT/USD
Weekly:
ALT/BTC
Weekly:
Market Cap: $441.2bn
Ideas: Starting with ALT/USD, we will see that the altcoin market has emerged lastly after over 500 days of being range-bound, lately rallying again via the 200wMA, consolidating above it as assist after which pushing via multi-year resistance at $413bn. We now have pushed into the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market right here at $480bn and rejected, now consolidating inside the prior weekly vary. I might count on to see additional consolidation right here after the multi-week rally, however there may be nothing bearish about this on the upper timeframes. So long as we will now maintain above that $400bn space, I might count on the following squeeze to open up a much wider vary, the place issues will get very attention-grabbing: above $480bn, there isn’t a resistance for alts again into the 38.2% fib and prior assist close to $590bn – over 25% increased from right here. That’s the place I might count on extra resistance to be discovered for alts and maybe a broader market correction. Disbelief is changing into hope.
Taking a look at ALT/BTC, we will see that regardless of some positive factors in Greenback values of alts – and big positive factors on-chain in non-ETH ecosystems – we’ve largely been trending decrease towards BTC for over a 12 months. Most lately, alts depraved beneath assist at 10.5mn into 9.6mn and bounced, with development exhaustion now showing on this timeframe. We additionally noticed the market shut above trendline resistance, marginally – that is all indicative of a interval of altcoin outperformance being imminent, which is confluent with the Greenback valuation of the altcoin market. If we will reclaim 11.4mn as assist right here, I feel that would be the catalyst for alts outperforming BTC into the 200wMA and prior multi-year vary assist up close to 13.3mn BTC.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook – and the ultimate one in every of 2023!
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to go away any feedback or questions beneath, or e mail me instantly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
