Timothy Peterson’s market simulation reveals a 50% likelihood Bitcoin hits $140K in October.
Bitcoin just lately hit $126K, needing a 14.7% rise to succeed in $140K.
Different analysts, nevertheless, be aware possible short-term pullbacks earlier than potential sustained positive aspects.
Economist Timothy Peterson has projected that Bitcoin might attain $140,000 earlier than the top of October, citing data-driven simulations that point out a 50% likelihood of the world’s largest cryptocurrency closing the month above that mark.
The evaluation, grounded in additional than a decade of Bitcoin’s historic value behaviour, means that half of the cryptocurrency’s potential October positive aspects might have already got occurred.
Information-driven prediction, not hypothesis
Peterson’s projection, shared on X on October 7, 2025, was primarily based on “tons of of simulations” utilizing Bitcoin’s every day value information since 2015.
“There’s a 50% likelihood Bitcoin finishes the month above $140K,” he wrote, including that there’s a 43% likelihood it might end under $136,000.
In keeping with Peterson, the forecast is solely statistical, not influenced by sentiment or subjective opinion.
He emphasised that the outcomes have been “primarily based purely on actual information, not human emotion or biased opinion,” designed to replicate Bitcoin’s historic volatility and cyclical rhythm.
On the time of his evaluation, Bitcoin was buying and selling at round $122,000, having cooled barely after setting a brand new all-time excessive of $126,200 earlier within the week.
Reaching $140,000 would require a roughly 14.7% achieve from present ranges, a transfer that aligns carefully with Bitcoin’s common October efficiency over the previous decade.
Historic information from CoinGlass reveals that October has been Bitcoin’s second-best month since 2013, sometimes delivering positive aspects of about 20.75%.
October’s historic significance for Bitcoin
Peterson defined that “Bitcoin’s efficiency in October isn’t ‘arrange’ by September, it’s arrange all through the whole yr.”
Bitcoin’s efficiency in October is not “arrange” by September, its arrange all through the whole yr.
This chart plots Jan–Sept returns vs. October returns since 2015. The stronger Bitcoin performs via the primary 9 months, the stronger October tends to be. October has… pic.twitter.com/MLtqz5znkD
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 2, 2025
The economist linked Bitcoin’s seasonal energy to broader monetary patterns, equivalent to the top of third-quarter portfolio rebalancing, the beginning of fiscal yr planning, and the strategy of year-end reporting home windows for funding funds.
These components, he recommended, create beneficial situations for renewed capital inflows into Bitcoin and different danger property.
Whereas Peterson’s mannequin gives a probability-based outlook, he cautioned that markets don’t all the time conform completely to historic patterns.
Bitcoin’s previous behaviour has sometimes diverged from expectations even when information indicated excessive confidence ranges.
Nonetheless, he maintains that the mannequin gives a “clear, probability-based image” of the place Bitcoin’s worth is almost definitely to maneuver within the brief time period.
Market sentiment leans bullish
Peterson’s forecast comes as market sentiment round Bitcoin stays usually optimistic.
Crypto analysts equivalent to Jelle and Matthew Hyland have echoed bullish outlooks in latest days, highlighting Bitcoin’s profitable retest of earlier highs and suggesting that momentum might push costs additional upward.
Earlier this week, Jelle posted, “It’s undoubtedly over for bears. Ship it greater,” whereas Hyland famous that “the stress is constructing.”
Nevertheless, not all voices out there are calling for a right away surge.
Analyst Ardi, identified for his technical commentary, identified that Bitcoin typically experiences a short-term pullback of round 5% after hitting new all-time highs.
Such strikes, Ardi stated, are sometimes adopted by a interval of choppiness and consolidation—a sample that might play out once more earlier than any sustained rally.
$BTC likes to dump ~5% after it hits new ATHs, usually adopted by a interval of chop and consolidation.
Remainder of the market almost definitely chops with it. pic.twitter.com/iZMqaUV6Qc
— Ardi (@AltcoinArdi) October 8, 2025
Technical outlook helps Bitcoin’s upward potential
Technical indicators additionally seem to help a bullish bias within the close to time period.
In keeping with market evaluation, Bitcoin’s key help degree stands at $120,899, with speedy resistance at $124,148 and a better goal of $126,021.
The cryptocurrency is at present buying and selling above all main exponential shifting averages (10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs), signalling sturdy upward momentum.
Projections are that Bitcoin might attain round $121,633 within the coming days, with longer-term forecasts setting formidable value targets of $221,485 for 2025.
