Analyst Weekly, July 7, 2025
Tax Reconciliation Invoice Handed: Core Implications
The tax reconciliation invoice (nicknamed the One Massive Stunning Invoice, or OBBB) was handed and signed by President Trump on July 4, with the Senate needing a tie-breaking vote by VP Vance.
The invoice contains:
100% speedy expensing for capital investments
Increased web curiosity deductibility
Elevated tax credit score (from 25% to 35%) for semiconductor manufacturing investments starting 2026
An enlargement of the Orphan Cures Act, shielding multi-condition orphan medicine from Medicare worth negotiations
A $5 trillion enhance within the debt ceiling, permitting new Treasury issuance weighted towards short-term T-bills
Funding Takeaway:
Constructive for capex-heavy sectors: industrials, protection, chemical substances, and telecoms profit from full expensing.
Semiconductors (tools makers and fab-heavy companies) stand to realize from the improved manufacturing tax credit score.
Pharma/biotech companies with orphan drug pipelines profit from the expanded pricing exemption.
Treasury market influence: Emphasis on short-duration issuance (20% → 30% T-bill share) favors decrease curiosity price however will increase rollover threat – supportive of the quick finish of the curve over lengthy bonds
Corporations that profit from a number of provisions of the tax invoice embody:
Industrials & Supplies: UPS (UPS), Worldwide Paper (IP), Northrop Grumman (NOC), Basic Dynamics (GD), Lockheed Martin (LMT)
Pharma/Biotech: Pfizer (PFE), Vertex (VRTX), Novartis (NOVN-CH), Amgen (AMGN), Illumina
Chemical compounds: Celanese (CE), Dow (DOW), LyondellBasell (LYB)
Telecom/Media: AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ)
Client & Staples: Altria (MO), Yum! Manufacturers (YUM), Tyson Meals (TSN)
Rising Tariffs, Shifting Provide Chains: Vietnam as a Check Case and North America as a Commerce Winner
Opposite to widespread perception amongst some buyers, current US commerce offers are usually not resulting in decrease tariffs. As a substitute, the Trump administration is locking in a common 10% tariff ground, with country-specific charges which are typically considerably increased. Specifically, Asian international locations are being focused because of their proximity to China and the administration’s deal with curbing transshipment, the apply of routing Chinese language items by means of third international locations to keep away from direct tariffs. This strategy is aimed toward imposing stricter guidelines of origin and shutting longstanding commerce loopholes.
The brand new US-Vietnam commerce deal illustrates this coverage in motion. Vietnam will face a 20% tariff on most of its items and a 40% fee on items imported from China after which shipped to the US This deal additionally exempts US items from Vietnamese tariffs, underscoring its uneven nature.
In distinction, Mexico and Canada are rising as beneficiaries of the administration’s commerce coverage. Each already adjust to stringent guidelines of origin below USMCA and face no common tariff, making a widening price benefit over Vietnam. This may increasingly speed up onshoring and provide chain migration nearer to the US.
Whereas Vietnam has but to verify the tariff particulars, the coverage framework now has clear boundaries, providing some certainty to Vietnam-exposed equities, which have underperformed since late 2024. India could strike a deal subsequent, with diplomatic strain mounting on Japan, the place negotiations stay stalled. The early completion of the Vietnam deal is seen as a strategic transfer to affect talks with different key buying and selling companions within the Asia-Pacific area.
In abstract, a brand new take care of Vietnam:
Raises tariffs to twenty% on most Vietnamese imports
Hikes to 40% on items made in China and rerouted by way of Vietnam
US items enter Vietnam tariff-free
Funding Takeaway:
Tariffs are going up, not down, even below commerce offers. That is unfavourable for multinationals sourcing by way of Asia.
July 9 is the deadline for Trump’s new reciprocal tariff bulletins, concentrating on tariffs above 10% beginning August 1.
Vietnam now serves as a check case for “guidelines of origin” enforcement to stop tariff evasion by way of transshipment.
Capital rotation towards North American suppliers: We see Mexico and Canada positioned as relative winners. These international locations already adjust to stricter origin guidelines below USMCA and keep away from the brand new tariffs.
Industrials and logistics companies with publicity to US-Mexico/Canada commerce could profit from commerce re-routing and provide chain onshoring.
Bitcoin on the Verge of a Breakout? This Week Might Be Essential
This week might turn into one of the crucial vital for the whole crypto market within the second half of the 12 months. Bitcoin has just lately approached its all-time excessive, which was set in Could at $110,872.
Above this stage, there aren’t any clear technical reference factors on the chart. Nevertheless, instruments like Fibonacci extensions can nonetheless present steerage. The following potential worth goal is close to $130,000, based mostly on the 161.8% retracement of the current correction.
As is well-known, worth motion within the crypto market can transfer shortly. However solely a transparent breakout above the document excessive would considerably enhance the possibilities of reaching this subsequent goal.
Due to the sharp rally since April, a number of help zones—so-called Truthful Worth Gaps—have shaped beneath present ranges. The primary of those zones lies between $98,000 and $100,000. This space was efficiently defended three weeks in the past and should act as a help once more.
If this zone fails to carry, nevertheless, a pullback towards the $86,000 to $92,000 vary might observe.
Bitcoin, weekly chart
Capital Allocation Dilemma: Structural Strengths of Europe and the US
The place ought to I make investments my cash – in Europe or the US? Few funding subjects have sparked as a lot debate in 2025. Many buyers stay unsure. To date this 12 months, European fairness markets have outperformed their US counterparts. The STOXX Europe 600 is up 7.6%, in comparison with a 5.9% achieve within the S&P 500. The lead is slim, however that’s solely half the story.
Foreign money results add one other layer of complexity. For the reason that starting of the 12 months, the US greenback has misplaced round 14% towards the euro. For US buyers with European holdings, that’s created a big increase in returns. Conversely, the weaker greenback has eroded earnings for European buyers in US belongings. From a global perspective, the weaker greenback may really seem enticing, performing like a built-in low cost for shares.
Structurally, Europe is extra defensively positioned, much less growth-oriented, however provides increased dividend yields on common. In distinction, the US is pushed by innovation, simpler entry to enterprise capital and lighter regulation. In an atmosphere that favors progress, the US could have the sting, particularly with megatrends like synthetic intelligence and robotics.
Lengthy-term buyers seeking to diversify broadly can hardly keep away from allocating to each areas. It’s much less about “either-or” and extra about getting the weighting proper. On a stock-by-stock stage, there are additionally progress alternatives in Europe and enticing dividend performs within the US.
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