Regardless of macroeconomic headwinds, Bitcoin (BTC) seems to be primed to create a brand new all-time excessive (ATH), charged by optimistic This autumn 2024 seasonality.
Bitcoin New ATH On The Horizon?
On October 28, BTC surged previous $71,000, sparking optimism for a brand new ATH above the $73,737 peak recorded in March this yr. Though BTC has crossed the $70,000 threshold a number of occasions since then, it has but to set a brand new ATH.
Based on a latest report from the cryptocurrency buying and selling platform Bitfinex, Bitcoin may very well be on observe for a brand new ATH shortly after the US presidential election. Bitcoin is commonly seen as a “Trump commerce,” exhibiting a powerful correlation with Donald Trump’s election odds.
For instance, after a 6% decline final week, BTC has regained all losses, coinciding with Trump’s rising election odds on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform.
On the time of writing, Trump leads with a 66.1% likelihood of profitable versus Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who stands at 33.9%. Nevertheless, opinion polls present an in depth race, making the election final result unsure.
A attainable Trump victory is stirring the choices market. Based on the report, whereas short-term volatility could enhance nearer to election outcomes, BTC’s long-term bullish outlook stays intact. It states:
Choices expiring on key dates across the election are commanding increased premiums, with implied volatility anticipated to peak at 100 each day vol on November eighth, simply after Election Day – indicating that the market is bracing for potential turbulence. Whatever the election final result, short-term volatility is anticipated to be increased than common although we stay assured in longer-term worth appreciation.
It’s value highlighting that BTC dipped as little as $52,756 in September. Nevertheless, the premier digital asset rallied virtually 30% in October, inspiring some confidence within the “Uptober” narrative.
Seasonality Is On Bitcoin’s Facet
The report emphasizes that BTC is positioned to profit from “favorable This autumn seasonality.” Traditionally, This autumn has been worthwhile for BTC throughout halving years, giving a median quarterly return of 31.34%.
The buildup in name choices expiring December 27 – particularly on the $80,000 strike worth – additionally bolsters BTC’s This autumn 2024 bullish outlook. The report provides:
As choices open curiosity climbs to new highs, the market is exhibiting indicators of positioning for a post-election surge, doubtlessly propelling Bitcoin in the direction of—and past—its all-time excessive of $73,666.
In related information earlier this month, crypto analysis agency K33 Analysis remarked that the most recent optimistic developments within the FTX fiasco propel Bitcoin’s bullish This autumn narrative.
BTC trades at $71,110 at press time, up 3.1% prior to now 24 hours and about 3.5% away from its present ATH. Whether or not BTC will proceed its upward pattern by way of the remainder of the quarter or face one other rejection stays to be seen.
Featured Picture from Unsplash.com, Charts from Polymarket and TradingView.com
