Locked token holders have skilled a median drawdown of almost 50% for his or her locked positions in comparison with over-the-counter (OTC) valuations in Might 2024.
In keeping with knowledge printed by STIX founder Taran Sabharwal on April 22, holders might have exited their positions at double the present spot costs the earlier yr.
Sabharwal shared knowledge evaluating totally diluted valuation (FDV) estimates from Might 2024 towards present FDVs as of April 2025 for main tokens, together with JITO, BERA, ZRO, WLD, TIA, IO, W, ZK, EIGEN, SCR, and BLAST.
Widespread devaluations throughout prime tokens
Among the many tasks tracked, almost all confirmed appreciable valuation declines. SCR and BLAST recorded the biggest year-over-year drawdowns at -85% and -88%, respectively.
EIGEN adopted intently with a -75% drop. Different tokens, reminiscent of ZK (-64%), W (-50%), IO (-48%), and TIA (-44%), additionally posted substantial declines relative to their locked OTC valuations from the earlier yr.
Solely JITO posted a rise, with a +75% achieve relative to final yr’s valuations, standing out as an exception in an in any other case broadly destructive setting for locked token holders.
In keeping with Sabharwal, the disparity between OTC valuations and present spot costs highlights the dangers of investing in illiquid, locked positions throughout early-stage token rounds.
Whereas these early investments are sometimes structured with the expectation of long-term upside, market volatility and project-specific components over the previous 12 months have led to substantial underperformance relative to preliminary valuations.
In the identical interval, the 22 sectors within the crypto market, along with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), skilled a median correction of 40.7%, based mostly on Artemis knowledge. That is almost 20% higher than the efficiency of locked tokens.
Implications for token markets and early traders
The info means that many early-stage token traders who dedicated to locked positions could have missed higher exit alternatives within the secondary market all through 2024.
Locked tokens sometimes include vesting schedules or switch restrictions, which stop quick liquidity and expose holders to market shifts in the course of the lock-up interval.
The info shared by Sabharwal additionally displays broader market situations affecting totally diluted valuations throughout the crypto sector. Newer tasks face intensified stress in secondary markets in comparison with their preliminary fundraising rounds.
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