Analyst Weekly September 15, 2025
From EM tech power to report US buybacks, market drivers are stacking up forward of the Fed’s first charge minimize of 2025. With US progress nonetheless uneven and inflation expectations anchored, Powell is anticipated to ship a 25 bp minimize this week, however markets will likely be watching his steerage on the tempo of additional easing simply as intently.
Tech is the New EM Engine
Rising markets (EM) have usually been seen as unstable and laborious to navigate, however the newest earnings season suggests issues could also be turning a nook. Whereas total EM earnings progress was flat in Q2, the breadth of earnings revisions is enhancing for the primary time in months, particularly in Asia, because of tech power and supportive coverage strikes.
Semis lead the pack: The standout theme is expertise. Firms tied to the worldwide AI cycle are fueling earnings upgrades. Taiwan and South Korea, each tech-heavy markets, delivered strong revenue progress because of sturdy demand for superior chips. Taiwan’s TSMC and Korea’s SK Hynix are clear beneficiaries, with management in areas like AI accelerators and high-bandwidth reminiscence.
Web shake-up: China’s huge e-commerce companies like Alibaba, JD, and Meituan stay below strain from intense competitors, particularly in meals supply and fast commerce. Nevertheless, Alibaba’s cloud and worldwide companies are serving to offset home challenges. In the meantime, ASEAN web companies reminiscent of Seize and Sea are thriving. They’re exhibiting sturdy consumer progress, resilient profitability, and increasing into fintech and digital providers. For traders taking a look at long-term structural progress in EM, it is a key theme: the digital economic system is alive and effectively outdoors of China.
Financials Regaining Energy: One other shiny spot is financials. Chinese language banks (like China Retailers Financial institution, Financial institution of China) noticed earnings rebound in Q2, helped by larger price revenue. Indian and Brazilian banks additionally reported resilient outcomes, with names like ICICI Financial institution and Itau Unibanco highlighted as well-positioned leaders. Sturdy capitalization and regular mortgage progress make them standouts in areas which are nonetheless under-owned by international traders. For retail purchasers, this implies the monetary sector, lengthy a spine of EM indices, is regaining relevance as a driver of regular returns.
Watch place sizes & FX Threat: EM strikes may be sharp, pacing publicity helps handle swings– broad EM or Asia ex-Japan ETFs assist easy out country-specific shocks. Pair EM tech/financials with publicity to gold (a traditional EM hedge) or developed markets. To remove foreign money danger, traders can spend money on a foreign money hedged fairness ETF; exchange-traded foreign money (ETCs); or by CFDs or unfold bets.
Funding Takeaway: Rising markets could look boring on the floor, however momentum is quietly constructing. Tech is prospering, banks are stabilizing, and coverage help is boosting home demand. The scary “tariff shock” from US commerce coverage has been much less extreme than anticipated, giving exporters some respiration room. AI and tech cycles stay a worldwide resilience issue, serving to offset weak spots like client staples. Alternatives are broadening from Taiwan semis to Indian banks to Southeast Asian web platforms. With valuations nonetheless low-cost and progress selecting up together with Fed charge cuts, EM publicity might be a solution to steadiness portfolios tilted closely towards US mega-caps.
Massive Buybacks, Greater Affect
US firms are shopping for again inventory at report ranges in 2025. Almost $1 trillion in buyback bulletins have been made up to now this yr, placing 2025 on tempo to surpass final yr’s whole. Tech giants are main the best way; Apple ($100B), Google ($70B), and Nvidia ($60B) all unveiled large buyback packages this earnings season. Massive banks like JPM ($50B), GS ($40B), WFC ($40B), and BAC ($40B) have additionally dedicated tens of billions every.
For traders, buybacks matter as a result of they cut back the variety of shares in circulation. That may enhance earnings per share, present value help, and sign that administration is assured within the firm’s future. However the exercise is extremely concentrated – a handful of mega-caps characterize about 66% of all buybacks this yr. For retail portfolios tilted towards tech and financials, that focus means buybacks may play an outsized function in driving returns.
VIX Slips as Markets Keep Pinned
Volatility retains grinding decrease (14.76), with the VIX sliding as key financial information passes with out sparking main swings. Market focus has shifted extra towards indicators of labor market weak point than inflation, whereas the backdrop of doable stagflation, slower progress alongside sticky costs, stays a part of the dialog. AI-related shares past the “Magazine 7” have been a shiny spot, serving to sentiment stabilize.
Nonetheless, supplier positioning into month-end suggests rallies are bought into and pullbacks are purchased, retaining the S&P 500 range-bound. As soon as September choices and quarter-end expirations are behind us, the market may commerce extra freely, although company buyback blackouts could take away a layer of help. With volatility low, some traders are eyeing October as a superb window so as to add safety with methods reminiscent of QQQ put unfold collars – which cap upside in trade for cheaper draw back safety – drawing elevated consideration.
South Korean Shares With Dynamic Restoration
The EWY (iShares MSCI South Korea ETF) ended final week with a 7% acquire at 78.66 factors. In the long run, there’s nonetheless catching as much as do in comparison with the U.S. and European inventory markets. The final report excessive was reached on the finish of 2020 at 96.20 factors. The hole has now narrowed to 18%. Within the medium time period, traders have more and more turned again to South Korean shares. Because the low in April, the index has risen 62%, whereas the S&P 500 gained solely 37% over the identical interval. From a technical perspective, EWY may proceed its restoration within the coming weeks and months – a minimum of so long as the help zone between 70.96 and 69.59 factors (Truthful Worth Hole) holds.
EWY within the weekly chart. Supply: eToro
Cloud Enterprise Triggers a Surge in Oracle Shares
Oracle’s inventory skyrocketed final week, gaining over 25%. Sturdy cloud offers fueled an enormous order increase. In only one quarter, a number of multibillion-dollar contracts have been signed, together with with OpenAI, Nvidia, and TikTok. The order backlog surged to $455 billion — greater than 4 instances the earlier yr’s stage. On the chance aspect, Oracle faces extraordinarily excessive investments, which put strain on money stream and margins. As well as, there’s a sturdy dependence on just a few main clients.
The market was closely overbought at instances, however situations have since eased considerably. Buyers ought to watch the reactions within the two Truthful Worth Gaps created by the rally: between $241 and $296, and between $219 and $234. Bullish reversal indicators in these zones may point out {that a} new upward transfer is about to start.
Oracle within the each day chart. Supply: eToro
Macro Calendar: All Eyes on Powell
The Fed is anticipated to chop rates of interest on Wednesday for the primary time this yr (determination at 8:00 p.m.). Weak point within the labor market offers the Fed the inexperienced mild for a minimize. A small step of 25 foundation factors to a variety of 4.00 to 4.25 % is anticipated. By the top of 2026, markets anticipate a complete of six small cuts. Persistently excessive inflation may sluggish this tempo. That’s why the brand new quarterly projections from the central financial institution will likely be decisive. In June, the Fed projected core PCE inflation of two.4% for 2026 and a pair of.1% for 2027. A downward revision would give shares and bonds a lift. As well as, Jerome Powell’s press convention at 8:30 p.m. may present key steerage on what occurs after the September assembly.
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