Bloomberg Intelligence’s James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have upgraded their outlook for a swathe of single-asset spot-crypto exchange-traded funds, taking the headline odds for XRP, Solana (SOL) and Litecoin (LTC) to 95 p.c for approval by the tip of 2025. Posting the revised forecast on X late on 30 June, Seyffart wrote: “Listed here are mine and Eric Balchunas’ most up-to-date odds on spot crypto ETF approvals by the tip of 2025. We count on a wave of recent ETFs on this second half of 2025.”
Bloomberg Raises XRP, Solana, Litecoin ETF Odds To 95%
The analysts’ newest matrix assigns an identical 95 p.c odds to 4 classes: XRP, SOL, LTC and a separate “basket/index” product that might convert Grayscale, Bitwise, Hashdex and Franklin automobiles holding a number of tokens into spot ETFs. Every of these filings has already had its preliminary Rule 19b-4 submission acknowledged by the Securities and Alternate Fee, and every faces a remaining SEC determination in early July (for the basket product) or in mid-October 2025 (for the three single-asset funds).
Immediately behind the front-runners sit Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, Hedera (HBAR) and Avalanche, all marked at 90 p.c. Canary-filed Sui is judged a coin-flip at 60 p.c, whereas Tron and the micro-cap token Pengu every stay at 50 p.c, reflecting open questions round commodity standing and the absence of CFTC-regulated futures.
The brand new 95 p.c determine is the third upward revision in as many months. On 20 June Balchunas and Seyffart lifted most altcoin ETFs to “90% or greater”, citing “remarkably constructive” engagement from SEC employees. Again in late April, the identical analysts nonetheless pegged SOL at 70 p.c and XRP at simply 65 p.c, a stage they themselves known as “an improved outlook” in contrast with February’s sub-60 p.c assessments. In percentage-point phrases, XRP and LTC have due to this fact gained roughly thirty factors because the begin of the 12 months, whereas SOL is up 25.
Three dynamics underpin the most recent bump: First, there’s the approaching determination on Grayscale’s Digital Giant Cap Fund (GDLC). The SEC should determine by 2 July whether or not to permit NYSE Arca to record shares of GDLC, a $730 million car that holds Bitcoin, Ether and a mixed 8 p.c slice of XRP, SOL and Cardano.
Seyffart advised Blockworks that the company may “let the product by way of” exactly as a result of the non-BTC/ETH allocation is modest; “in the event that they’re not permitted on this primary date, it’ll solely be as a result of the SEC isn’t prepared with a full framework,” he mentioned blockworks.co. ETF Retailer president Nate Geraci went additional, writing through X that approval is “extremely possible” and would create a “low-risk sandbox” for the SEC to collect surveillance knowledge earlier than green-lighting standalone altcoin funds.
In each case the place Seyffart assigns 90 p.c or extra, the underlying token already trades on a Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee-regulated venue and has been implicitly handled as a commodity in latest SEC correspondence. The company’s acknowledgement of the related 19b-4 filings, Seyffart argues, “means that the underlying altcoins are possible considered as commodities”
The third constructive signal is the energetic, iterative dialogue with issuers. A number of sponsors — together with Canary, VanEck, 21Shares and Constancy — have filed amended S-1s on the SEC’s request over the previous month. Seyffart and Balchunas see that stage of back-and-forth as the identical sample that preceded spot-Bitcoin approval in January 2024 and spot-Ether approval seven months later.
If GDLC wins the nod this week, consideration will swing shortly to the single-asset queue. The SEC’s remaining deadline for Solana is 10 October 2025; XRP and Dogecoin come up on 17 October; Litecoin on 2 October; Cardano on 23 October; Polkadot on 8 November; Hedera on 11 November; and Avalanche on 12 December. Sui’s file runs to 21 December, whereas the primary substantive determination on Tron isn’t due till 23 January 2026, and Pengu stretches to 12 March 2026.
At press time, XRP traded at $2.21.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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